Friday, October 30, 2020

Monocracy or Democracy

    Here we are again. It has been hard enough surviving four years of Donald Trump. Four more years would be disastrous. There can be only one priority - win. Policy is only secondary. If the Democrats win, policy will take care of itself. For this the Democrats need unity. They need to get out the vote. For those in the Democratic Party who had higher hopes in terms of a more "progressive" candidate, remember in team sports you cannot score if you don't have the ball. You can argue about whether to use the long passing game or the steady ground game after you get possession. 

     The secondary objective is to demolish the Republican Party. Trump is an individual. Individuals come and go. The Republican Party is an institution. Decaying and corrupt as it may be, it was here before Trump and will be here after Trump, unless the Democrats send it on its way like the Federalists and the Whigs. They have been a millstone around the neck of this country since at least the time of Reagan with their twisted, incoherent and inconsistent philosophy, an amalgam of borrowed themes to justify or rationalize their underlying greed. They have been obstructing even the most moderate progressive policies for forty years if not more. There is room for a conservative party in this country in the classical sense of conservatism, but the Republican Party today is a party of reaction, not conservatism, and Trump is their flag bearer. They stand for plutocracy. Even worse under Trump they stand for monocracy - the rule of one. They stand for the disenfranchisement of those who vote or might vote Democratic. In this regard, they are attempting to carry forward the voting restrictions of the Jim Crow South (as well as other attitudes of that era). This is Trump's sick world view, and the sycophants of the Republican Party are willing to follow him all the way to the deluge, or at least the bank. Their ideal is the one party state. They are not Nazis, but that is their political model. Take a look at what was going on in Germany in 1933 and thereafter. Noam Chomsky may be right when he calls the Republican Party "the most dangerous organization in human history". As David Blight has put it, "It knows what it hates: the two coasts, diverse cities, marriage equality, certain kinds of feminism, political correctness (sometimes with reason), university 'elites', and liberals generally. It is racial and undemocratic. It twists American history to its own ends, substituting 'patriotism' for scholarship and science. It has weaponized 'truth' and rendered it oddly irrelevant." 

     Trump has only contempt for democracy, at least as it is practiced in this country, as well as the rule of law which preserves liberal democracy. His democracy is the "democracy" of Russia, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, the Philippines, China and North Korea. Certainly he believes in "one man, one vote". The problem is that for him that one man is him and the one vote is his. He has continuously and consistently tried to circumvent Congress (which does, in fact, represent the people although they sometimes have a funny way of showing it) and even his own administration. He constantly advocates policies which do not reflect the preferences of the majority of the American people whether it is the wall, DACA, health care or even modest regulation of guns, among other things. In fact, it would seem that due to his mental illness his policy decisions are based on being in opposition to the majority. His is the emotional attitude of the two year old demanding attention. He is like a naughty little boy determined to show that we cannot make him listen or care or behave, that no parent or teacher or public health official can guilt him into anything because now he is all grown up. His reward is our disapproval, and that will always be enough. It feeds his perverse pride at being out of step. According to Trump biographer Michael D'Antonio, "He just prefers being the bad boy, the out-of-control deviant member of society who says the things that no one else will. He's just performing. He needs adoration of the mob more than he needs the acceptance of normal people." At some level he knows that he is so inadequate that he would be totally ignored if he did not stand in opposition to the majority's standards and norms. Yet he also psychologically needs to claim that he is backed by the majority of people, i.e., the biggest crowd at the inauguration, but for voter fraud he would have won the popular vote, etc. In his twisted way he deals with this by redefining the people to consist of his minority base of racists, homophobes, ethno-centrists, misogynists, white supremacists, QAnon, authoritarians, religious extremists, etc. The "others" are not part of the people. As Susan Faludi has pointed out, Trump channels (or tries to channel) old fashioned machismo - aggressive, physically tough, physically strong, never back down, bullying and bombast. FDR's declaration from 1932 seems apt, "... the man of ruthless force had his place in developing a pioneer country" but he now endangered the nation. "The lone wolf, the unethical competitor, the reckless promoter whose hand is against every man's, declines to join in achieving an end recognized as being for the public welfare, and threatens to drag the industry [read country] back to a state of anarchy." Faludi calls it, in Trump's case, "ornamental" masculinity, defined by display, a pantomime of aggrieved aggression: the curled lip, the exaggerated snarl. The irony, if anyone can get any joy from irony in our political world today, is that Trump is in fact weak and a coward, a cry baby and a whiner. His "masculinity" is not only ornamental, it is fake, a "cover up". Just as Trump University was a sham, although it may have been a good way to learn how to get ahead in real estate by lying, cheating and stealing, the art of Trump's deals. How does anyone buy into this? 

     Let's face it. Roughly 40+% of the voters are going to support him no matter what. Are they "deplorable"? Perhaps, or just damaged goods. In any event, it's a given. They are people who fear complexity and change. They are the living embodiment of the themes of the Counter-Enlightenment, which seem to lurk under the surface to re-emerge in history from time to time and never fully disappear, in the rejection of reason and the eruption of irrational behavior. These are people who embrace the doctrinaire, conformity, uniformity, hierarchy and obedience thereto, divine revelation and authority, revealed truth as distinct from science, a natural social order with separate strata, and liberty as freedom from constraint from the will of the minority or of those who don't conform to one's tribal norms. As one commentator has said, "Trump supporters ... have a strong concept which you could summarize as white, rural, John Wayne, football and hunting. They feel core America is under existential threat from people they view as outsiders: immigrants, Chinese communists, cosmopolitan urbanites and people of color. They see themselves as strong and vigilant protectors, defending the sacred homeland from alien menace." Sort of a tribal solipsism. 

     Beyond that there is a more malign element here. Trump and the Republicans want to create (perhaps "maintain" would be the more accurate verb) a permanent underclass of non-whites, a racial hierarchy. Obviously they don't say that (they blame the economic disparity on "bad choices"), but that is the desired effect of their social, economic and political policies. This is to keep their undereducated, rural white base in line. Going back to slavery and Jim Crow days, that is how the planter aristocracy and its progeny in the South kept political control of the poor whites - by ensuring that there was always a class below them that they could lord it over. The Republican Party has become a new kind of Confederacy. 

     Then there's roughly 40+% of the voters that can reliably be expected to vote for Enlightenment principles such as reason, a secular democratic egalitarian community, inclusive of the entire population, pluralism, education, tolerance and progress, i.e., Biden. This is why this election represents more than just a debate over climate change, health care and abortion, although it is that too. We are at Armageddon. Are we going to be a liberal (don't forget, democracy can be authoritarian) democratic country or a country dominated by autocrats and plutocrats in essentially a one party state in which the ruling party would not represent a popular majority. 

     The critical mass in the election is the remaining 10% who are on the fence and may go either way. How do the Democrats appeal to them? Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. That alone won't do it. Certainly there has to be a substantive policy program that appeals to what most Americans want or need. But at this point what Americans want and need most (aside from the end of the pandemic, and we will get to that) is a return to civility, stability, reliability, dependability, a sense of decency, predictability, togetherness, fairness, all of the old fashioned but never out of style virtues. There is no better way to promote these values than by emphasizing all the ways in which Trump denigrates these ideals - by quoting Trump back to them, by listing his egregious statements, positions, lies, contradictions, failures, hypocrisies and misstatements of fact. Leave out the petty stuff. You don't need a list of a thousand lies, 20-30 (choose your own number) will be enough if they are important and convincing enough. On top of that, give examples of how Trump and his cronies have circumvented Congress in order to spend government funds on projects which he can't get Congress to approve and to put officials in places of responsibility without required Congressional approval. His appointment of incompetent and corrupt officials who are then fired to be replaced by more incompetents (usually "acting" so he can keep them on a string and because he couldn't get them approved by the Senate). Finally, list all of his international failures - China still stealing our technology, North Korea still increasing its nuclear capability, Iran back on track to develop theirs, Russia still interfering in our elections, Venezuela still ruled by a dictator, Hungary's Orban invited to the White House, the invitation to Duarte of the Philippines to do likewise, the worldwide loss of respect and influence for our country, particularly by our allies in NATO and elsewhere. If this is the work of a self-proclaimed brilliant negotiator, can you imagine what a bad negotiator would do. Xi, Kim, Erdogan and Putin have all eaten Trump's lunch. In fact the rest of the world thinks of Trump as a jerk, a fool and just plain incompetent; the would-be emperor of a banana republic. Emphasize his lack of emotional and mental stability with quotations to that effect from those who serve or have served in his administration and from his family members, draw comparisons between Trump and Joe McCarthy and George Wallace (and Andrew Johnson who was our worst President prior to Trump), point out that he is one of only three Presidents to be impeached (which include Johnson) and the reasons for the impeachment, detail his conflicts of interest, crony capitalism, nepotism, self-dealing and tax evasion, his constant business failures, his obstruction of justice and politicization of the Justice Department, his firing of five inspector generals in numerous agencies for uncovering corruption and incompetence, his ignoring of congressional subpoenas and stonewalling of more than 20 congressional investigations, his demeaning of the intelligence agencies and most significantly the public health agencies, the pardoning and support of his criminal cronies, his implicit support of white nationalism, his attempts to chill the freedom of the press, his blatant and explicit racism and misogynism, his attempts at voter suppression, his usurpation of local policing activities, his anti-pollution control and anti-environment activities, his failure to take action against foreign interference in US elections and in fact his encouragement of such interference, his imposition of tariffs for which Americans pay, his continued and still pending attempt to overthrow Obamacare with no replacement, his failure to put forward his promised infrastructure projects, his anti-union regulations and his rejection of climate change and science generally. All by one man and in only four years - in one sense it's an astonishing achievement. 

     What about Trump's handling of the economy, the one area where the polls show some approval? Let's see what Steven Rattner says - (i) for the first three years of his presidency, his economy amounted to nothing more than a continuation of the recovery engineered by President Obama; (ii) job growth was faster during Obama's last three years than during the first three years of Trump's administration; (iii) the economy expanded at roughly the same rate during the two periods and never came close to Trump's promised "4, 5 or maybe even 6 percent"; (iv) after the virus came, Trump's slow start and clumsy management no doubt contributed to unemployment rocketing to 14.7 percent and a second-quarter fall in gross domestic product of 9 percent, by far the largest since the great depression; (v) there is no V-shaped recovery-more like a backward check mark; last month only 661,000 jobs were created, bringing the total returned to 11.4 million, just over half of what was lost; (vi) new claims for unemployment insurance have been trending sideways for two months, nearly quadruple pre-pandemic levels; (vii) manufacturing, a centerpiece of MAGA, sits at its smallest share of GDP in 73 years of data; (viii) the trade war-Bloomberg Economics estimated that the trade war would cost the US economy around $316 billion by the end of 2020; (ix) the tax cut-has fallen wildly short of generating promised revenues or growth; (x) going forward-Moody's Analytics estimated that the economy would expand faster under Biden, by a full percentage point if the Democrats also retake the Senate, and a Biden presidency would also mean 7.4 million more jobs created than under Trump, who would end a second term without unemployment having fully recovered. That would mean, in the latter case, that at the end of a second Trump term America would have fewer jobs than it had when Trump took office. As to the motley crew of enablers which Trump has recruited, such as Lewandowski, Bannon and Manafort, Romney's senior strategist in 2012, a Never Trumper, has described them as follows: "These are evil people. They don't have a sense of right and wrong. The people Trump attracts - these are damaged people. These are weird, damaged people. They are using Trump to work out their personal issues." One compilation going back to the Nixon administration shows that the Trump administration is the subject of 215 criminal indictments compared to 76 for the Nixon administration, 26 for Reagan, 16 for George W. down to zero for the Obama administration. 

     The Democrats can't just rely on the NY Times, The Washington Post, CNN, The Atlantic, etc., to make their case. They have to put the Bill of Particulars, the indictment as it were, (reminiscent of Thomas Jefferson's indictment of George III in the Declaration of Independence) in their messages to those most abused by Trump and those of the educated electorate who may not be living in urban centers. Of course, there also needs to be emphasis on the positive substantive programs which the Democrats plan to put in place, such as universal health care through a public option to go along with employer provided health care and Obamacare, dealing with climate change, tax increases aimed at the wealthy and corporations, responsible public health policies to bring the pandemic under control, stronger financial and antitrust regulation, empowerment of unions, more funding of education, including universal pre-K, increasing teacher's pay and training, easing the cost of higher education and vocational training, fully refundable child tax credits, paid parental and sick leave, environmental protection, increase in the minimum wage, affordable housing, police reform standards (not defunding), assistance for displaced workers and job training, comprehensive immigration reform, campaign finance reform, a foreign policy which restores our influence and allows us through international alliances to minimize the civil disturbances which lead to refugee and asylum pressures on us and our allies, and most importantly a return to respect for the rule of law both domestically and internationally. 

    Democrats must continue to hammer home on the pandemic. No crisis has had a greater impact on our daily lives since WW II. Trump's incompetence and criminal negligence in coping with it, which have already cost us over 225,000 lives (and still counting), alone justify his defeat at the polls (as well as his Senate enablers). His latest absurd counter-factual statements as well as those he has made since the beginning of the pandemic, his discouragement of anti-pandemic rules and guidelines by state and local public officials, and his attacks on and contradictions of federal public health officials, too numerous to mention here, should be broadcast in capital letters throughout the social networks and the mainstream media. And for those who may put higher priority on the economy, it needs to be emphasized that the economy is not coming back until the pandemic is under control. 

     Assuming victory in the White House and the Senate, the Democrats should strike quickly. Biden's idea of a commission to study what to do about the Supreme Court and the court system generally is a good one, both politically and practically. The issues are complex, and as recently demonstrated in the NY Times series of Op-Eds on the subject there are a number of ways to deal with them. That also provides time to see just how extreme the Court as currently constituted may be. At the same time the Democrats should aggressively propose meaningful legislation in several of the areas enumerated above which are most popular with the public. If the Republicans persist in their opposition to all things progressive, as they did with Obama, then the Democrats should threaten to eliminate the filibuster in the Senate. If that gets no results, then the filibuster should go. Down the road that may bite back, but for now there must be movement. Otherwise the reactionary right will think they can get away with anything.